The European Union will grow weaker in the next decade.


Geopolitical tensions are likely to become more severe within European countries.

European Union faces two problems in the years ahead. The first is the kind of relationship it wants to develop with a resurgent Russia. The second is determining how Germany, the most dynamic of European economies, should be situated within the Union.

These two world wars followed the same pattern: Germany, in a powerful but insecure position due to its being surrounded by nations with divergent interests, launched a lightning attack against its strongest rival, France.

Germany emerged from the 2008 economic crisis relatively unharmed, thus creating an imbalance with its neighbors and isolating the country.

The consequences of the 2008 meltdown have highlighted how far Europe is from being a single and united geopolitical force.

Germany opposed bailout measures for weaker countries. This also highlights the reality that Europe's historical integration was imposed primarily by the necessity of organizing against the Soviet threat.

The confederate model for European organization and integration hasn't evolved into a deeper sense of unity over time. Even today, each constituent nation-state chooses whether to adopt the Euro as its currency, clings to its own history and identity and refuses to commit to a united defense policy.

Ultimately, though the EU will not disappear, the coming years will see some members stepping out of the eurozone. And without united military forces, the EU will never attain any real power.